You make some good points. But I kinda lost you when you showed your ageism and threw away retirees.
I'm a retired physician. I work in a free clinic, because most people think they can't afford to.
At 64 I started a direct patient care clinic to serve kids with mental health issues...there's a huge shortage of mental health care for children and adolescents. It is also something many insurance companies won't cover. So I charge on a sliding scale with a minimum fee of $0. Max is what their insurance copay is.
I am also looking to emigrate. Please don't write us off. We're just like any other age in that some of us are more helpful/ fun/ curious than others. Some of us are just waiting to die, just like there are 40 year old couch potatoes.
Yes! I agree. I am an active community member and would continue to be so when I emigrate. But I also believe that he was thinking about the expat gated retired communities who can impact the economy negatively.
I love this perspective! What a great essay. It’s inspiring to think that this difficult time for our country could - if done correctly and as you say with humility - be of great benefit to many countries. Let’s bring what’s wonderful about the spirit of being American and integrate and offer something positive to the communities we join.
Hi, Irish person here who recently lived in the U.S. for ten years now back in Ireland. I’m heartbroken for America and worried about us all. I think you may not feel as welcomed to Ireland as your essay implies - something we could explore further if appropriate. But what I wanted to ask you is what kind of freedom you imagine Ireland is yearning to breathe? Is she currently suffocating? If so what from? (At the risk my questions sound rhetorical, they’re not. I’m genuinely curious.)
This is an important and refreshing perspective. The American exodus reminds me of similar exodus of other populations, creating diasporas around the world. For example, many well-educated Chinese nationals left the country in the first half of the 20th century due to the many political upheavals and wars + civil wars. One such diaspora can be seen in Taiwan, another in Hong Kong, and many in the U.S. and Europe. Wherever they go, they bring with them their wisdom, intelligence and hardworking spirit to build new communities and contribute to their host countries. I believe that the American diaspora will have a similar impact around the globe, as you describe in this essay.
As someone one who has lived and worked overseas on 2 different occasions, I wish you strength and luck in your endeavors. As an American citizen you are required to file a tax return even if you live outside the US. As a guest in a foreign country your “right” to earn a living may not exist. Many countries guard their jobs for their own citizens. You may find that many countries only allow for a 90 day tourist visa on entry. Transferring that to a longer visa will require understanding and speaking the local language to navigate the host’s country own bureaucracy. I have know people who just “remote” work for some entity in the US, this is against most country’s laws. From my limited experience and my wife’s limited experience there is no freer and easier place to start a business than the US. For what it is worth this is my opinion based on limited experience.
If I was a widower, I'd seriously consider Ireland. My maternal line leads there. Canada would also be a possibility. However, I'm not. We refuse to leave our children and grandchildren behind to face this. (Gestures) They'll need us, even if some of them don't understand that yet.
elsewhere they are suddenly expats. Low class immigrants versus high class expats.
Second problem: language skills. If you really want to settle there, you have to learn the language. If you wish to stay in your own small language bubble, you will just wait out Trump’s term before you go back. And enjoy yourself in the meantime at others’ expense.
Third problem, people are polite to Americans but are usually actually shocked by their ignorance, caused by low grade education.
It is that ignorance that breeds arrogance, I fesr. The start of your story I found rather arrogant, implying Americans are valuable immigrants because they do not baulk at breaking laws, rules or cultural norms and values. You think they will be successful by behaving like cowboys.
The rest of the world, and certainly Europe is not an under-developed space that needs American chutzpah. Painting Europe as an old, tired, backward, stagnating part of the world is a phantasy created in the US to keep feeling superior to the rest of the world. See our roads, bridges, trains, borderless travel, internet, telephone connectivity and marvel, compare it to your own back home.
Americans can use a bit more humility and have some more admiration for other countries and your emigration might have more chance os success.
Americans who move to other countries must first understand that once there, they are immigrants, not “expats”. Expats is a chique word for temporary workers, usually Anglo-Saxon. In the UK too, they describe everyone coming to work in the UK as “immigrants” but when they move to work
If I was in my 20s, I’d leave immediately. But as it is, I have children and grandchildren and I’m not going anywhere that doesn’t include them. You’re right, though. The brain drain is real and will get worse if we don’t get our government under control. That might be good for the people who choose to stay in that it might result in higher salaries, but it’s a shame all the same. We have neighbors who live part-time in Ireland and are working toward getting their citizenship. They love it. Good luck to you.
While I am aware of some Americans - highly educated with desirable skills - are leaving but I have to wonder how many Americans are truly leaving? Out of the hundred or so people in my circle, I only know of one couple who are selling their home and moving to Canada. There's a lot of discussion about leaving but many are simply not willing to leave family behind.
But the impact on America will be a brain drain - academics, scientists, researchers, health professionals, and techies will create a void that won't be easy to fill.
Suppose just half of one percent of Americans decide to leave. That’s not mass exodus. That’s the mosquito in the room. Small. Easy to ignore. Until it bites—and your entire night is ruined.
So let’s run the numbers.
Half of 1% of Americans is roughly 1.9 million people.
Now, we’re not talking about retirees or backpackers (not that I'm against them or saying they don't matter, they just don't matter for this argument.) We’re talking about the people I describe in this piece—globally mobile, high-earning professionals. Entrepreneurs. Tech workers. Legal, medical, and financial talent. Most with liquid capital, portable skills, and a deep understanding of leverage.
What’s their average net worth? Let’s go conservative and say $1 million. That might sound high—but not for a 40-something surgeon, a SaaS founder, or a dual-income couple in Boston with home equity and a 401(k). Some will have $200K. Some will have $20 million. But $1M average is a fair assumption, even a cautious one.
So what does that mean?
$1.9 trillion in capital walks out the door. Immediately. That’s about 7% of U.S. GDP.
Now take it further. Let’s assume they don’t just sit on that capital, but put it to work abroad. Conservative annual growth—say 6%–8% depending on risk appetite—means that money compounds over time.
In 30 years, that’s somewhere between $10 trillion and $20 trillion in lost capital appreciation, investment, and productivity. That's a third to nearly 3/4ths of the current US GDP, OUT THE DOOR. Gone. Bye-bye!
Gone. Not taxed. Not reinvested. Not spent in the U.S.
But that’s not even the real cost.
The real damage comes from the loss of capacity. The kinds of people who leave are:
Founders who would have started the next mid-sized firm employing 200 people.
Doctors in rural hospitals struggling to retain staff.
Defense engineers building the next generation of satellite tech.
Senior programmers who maintain legacy code nobody else understands.
Policy experts who quietly keep federal systems from falling apart.
You don’t need tens of millions to leave. You need the wrong 1% to leave. Because those are the people who maintain the system.
And history tells us how this plays out.
In Venezuela, it was oil engineers.
In Iran, it was academics and doctors.
In Hong Kong, it was financial professionals and media figures.
In South Africa, it was everyone with a second passport.
It doesn’t take a flood. Just a few key leaks—left unrepaired—and the dam eventually breaks.
Now, will most Americans leave? Of course not. Many will stay for family, familiarity, and inertia. But here’s the twist: the first movers create the on-ramps. They build the exit paths. They show others it’s possible.
And when the U.S. government realizes this trickle is turning into a trend, they’ll act. Quietly. Bureaucratically. Predictably.
Delayed or revoked passports for those with tax disputes.
Visa and investment restrictions tied to “national security interests.”
Quiet pressure on foreign governments to reject U.S. emigrants or extradite those who flee.
No walls. No jackboots. Just friction. Delays. “Administrative processing.”
The U.S. will become the Hotel California: You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave.
This isn’t hypothetical. Ask any Cuban doctor. Or Chinese dissident. Or South African hedge fund manager.
We are watching the early stages of a brain drain. And like most historical drains, the public won’t notice it until it's already well underway—because by then, the people who would’ve sounded the alarm will already be gone.
I feel it too, the decay of an empire…I want to believe that all those reasons that made America and that American expats will bring to their destination country, can also restore the prime position of America in the world…but it sadly seems like a mirage…
You make some good points. But I kinda lost you when you showed your ageism and threw away retirees.
I'm a retired physician. I work in a free clinic, because most people think they can't afford to.
At 64 I started a direct patient care clinic to serve kids with mental health issues...there's a huge shortage of mental health care for children and adolescents. It is also something many insurance companies won't cover. So I charge on a sliding scale with a minimum fee of $0. Max is what their insurance copay is.
I am also looking to emigrate. Please don't write us off. We're just like any other age in that some of us are more helpful/ fun/ curious than others. Some of us are just waiting to die, just like there are 40 year old couch potatoes.
Yes! I agree. I am an active community member and would continue to be so when I emigrate. But I also believe that he was thinking about the expat gated retired communities who can impact the economy negatively.
I love this perspective! What a great essay. It’s inspiring to think that this difficult time for our country could - if done correctly and as you say with humility - be of great benefit to many countries. Let’s bring what’s wonderful about the spirit of being American and integrate and offer something positive to the communities we join.
Hi, Irish person here who recently lived in the U.S. for ten years now back in Ireland. I’m heartbroken for America and worried about us all. I think you may not feel as welcomed to Ireland as your essay implies - something we could explore further if appropriate. But what I wanted to ask you is what kind of freedom you imagine Ireland is yearning to breathe? Is she currently suffocating? If so what from? (At the risk my questions sound rhetorical, they’re not. I’m genuinely curious.)
This is an important and refreshing perspective. The American exodus reminds me of similar exodus of other populations, creating diasporas around the world. For example, many well-educated Chinese nationals left the country in the first half of the 20th century due to the many political upheavals and wars + civil wars. One such diaspora can be seen in Taiwan, another in Hong Kong, and many in the U.S. and Europe. Wherever they go, they bring with them their wisdom, intelligence and hardworking spirit to build new communities and contribute to their host countries. I believe that the American diaspora will have a similar impact around the globe, as you describe in this essay.
As someone one who has lived and worked overseas on 2 different occasions, I wish you strength and luck in your endeavors. As an American citizen you are required to file a tax return even if you live outside the US. As a guest in a foreign country your “right” to earn a living may not exist. Many countries guard their jobs for their own citizens. You may find that many countries only allow for a 90 day tourist visa on entry. Transferring that to a longer visa will require understanding and speaking the local language to navigate the host’s country own bureaucracy. I have know people who just “remote” work for some entity in the US, this is against most country’s laws. From my limited experience and my wife’s limited experience there is no freer and easier place to start a business than the US. For what it is worth this is my opinion based on limited experience.
If I was a widower, I'd seriously consider Ireland. My maternal line leads there. Canada would also be a possibility. However, I'm not. We refuse to leave our children and grandchildren behind to face this. (Gestures) They'll need us, even if some of them don't understand that yet.
This is the issue for sure: family
Jesus. You make that much money?
elsewhere they are suddenly expats. Low class immigrants versus high class expats.
Second problem: language skills. If you really want to settle there, you have to learn the language. If you wish to stay in your own small language bubble, you will just wait out Trump’s term before you go back. And enjoy yourself in the meantime at others’ expense.
Third problem, people are polite to Americans but are usually actually shocked by their ignorance, caused by low grade education.
It is that ignorance that breeds arrogance, I fesr. The start of your story I found rather arrogant, implying Americans are valuable immigrants because they do not baulk at breaking laws, rules or cultural norms and values. You think they will be successful by behaving like cowboys.
The rest of the world, and certainly Europe is not an under-developed space that needs American chutzpah. Painting Europe as an old, tired, backward, stagnating part of the world is a phantasy created in the US to keep feeling superior to the rest of the world. See our roads, bridges, trains, borderless travel, internet, telephone connectivity and marvel, compare it to your own back home.
Americans can use a bit more humility and have some more admiration for other countries and your emigration might have more chance os success.
Americans who move to other countries must first understand that once there, they are immigrants, not “expats”. Expats is a chique word for temporary workers, usually Anglo-Saxon. In the UK too, they describe everyone coming to work in the UK as “immigrants” but when they move to work
If I was in my 20s, I’d leave immediately. But as it is, I have children and grandchildren and I’m not going anywhere that doesn’t include them. You’re right, though. The brain drain is real and will get worse if we don’t get our government under control. That might be good for the people who choose to stay in that it might result in higher salaries, but it’s a shame all the same. We have neighbors who live part-time in Ireland and are working toward getting their citizenship. They love it. Good luck to you.
While I am aware of some Americans - highly educated with desirable skills - are leaving but I have to wonder how many Americans are truly leaving? Out of the hundred or so people in my circle, I only know of one couple who are selling their home and moving to Canada. There's a lot of discussion about leaving but many are simply not willing to leave family behind.
But the impact on America will be a brain drain - academics, scientists, researchers, health professionals, and techies will create a void that won't be easy to fill.
Let me lay it out.
Suppose just half of one percent of Americans decide to leave. That’s not mass exodus. That’s the mosquito in the room. Small. Easy to ignore. Until it bites—and your entire night is ruined.
So let’s run the numbers.
Half of 1% of Americans is roughly 1.9 million people.
Now, we’re not talking about retirees or backpackers (not that I'm against them or saying they don't matter, they just don't matter for this argument.) We’re talking about the people I describe in this piece—globally mobile, high-earning professionals. Entrepreneurs. Tech workers. Legal, medical, and financial talent. Most with liquid capital, portable skills, and a deep understanding of leverage.
What’s their average net worth? Let’s go conservative and say $1 million. That might sound high—but not for a 40-something surgeon, a SaaS founder, or a dual-income couple in Boston with home equity and a 401(k). Some will have $200K. Some will have $20 million. But $1M average is a fair assumption, even a cautious one.
So what does that mean?
$1.9 trillion in capital walks out the door. Immediately. That’s about 7% of U.S. GDP.
Now take it further. Let’s assume they don’t just sit on that capital, but put it to work abroad. Conservative annual growth—say 6%–8% depending on risk appetite—means that money compounds over time.
In 30 years, that’s somewhere between $10 trillion and $20 trillion in lost capital appreciation, investment, and productivity. That's a third to nearly 3/4ths of the current US GDP, OUT THE DOOR. Gone. Bye-bye!
Gone. Not taxed. Not reinvested. Not spent in the U.S.
But that’s not even the real cost.
The real damage comes from the loss of capacity. The kinds of people who leave are:
Founders who would have started the next mid-sized firm employing 200 people.
Doctors in rural hospitals struggling to retain staff.
Defense engineers building the next generation of satellite tech.
Senior programmers who maintain legacy code nobody else understands.
Policy experts who quietly keep federal systems from falling apart.
You don’t need tens of millions to leave. You need the wrong 1% to leave. Because those are the people who maintain the system.
And history tells us how this plays out.
In Venezuela, it was oil engineers.
In Iran, it was academics and doctors.
In Hong Kong, it was financial professionals and media figures.
In South Africa, it was everyone with a second passport.
It doesn’t take a flood. Just a few key leaks—left unrepaired—and the dam eventually breaks.
Now, will most Americans leave? Of course not. Many will stay for family, familiarity, and inertia. But here’s the twist: the first movers create the on-ramps. They build the exit paths. They show others it’s possible.
And when the U.S. government realizes this trickle is turning into a trend, they’ll act. Quietly. Bureaucratically. Predictably.
Expect:
Enhanced exit tax enforcement under IRC §877A.
Stricter offshore reporting (FBAR, FATCA crackdowns).
Delayed or revoked passports for those with tax disputes.
Visa and investment restrictions tied to “national security interests.”
Quiet pressure on foreign governments to reject U.S. emigrants or extradite those who flee.
No walls. No jackboots. Just friction. Delays. “Administrative processing.”
The U.S. will become the Hotel California: You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave.
This isn’t hypothetical. Ask any Cuban doctor. Or Chinese dissident. Or South African hedge fund manager.
We are watching the early stages of a brain drain. And like most historical drains, the public won’t notice it until it's already well underway—because by then, the people who would’ve sounded the alarm will already be gone.
Small change.
Big consequences.
The mosquito is already in the room.
Putting a number on makes it real. Another reason to leave is because of the brain drain. Theocracy wrapped up in conspiracy theories…
Outstanding post! 👏
I feel it too, the decay of an empire…I want to believe that all those reasons that made America and that American expats will bring to their destination country, can also restore the prime position of America in the world…but it sadly seems like a mirage…