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Dr. Strangelove, Revisited

How premature commitment turns uncertainty into inevitability.

Bryan C. Del Monte's avatar
Bryan C. Del Monte
Jan 22, 2026
∙ Paid

On Tuesday, I described a bridge that did not fail when it collapsed.

The Morandi Bridge failed years earlier — when sensors embedded in the structure began reporting subtle changes that didn’t belong. Stress redistributed. Vibrations appeared where they hadn’t before. Load paths shifted.

Nothing dramatic happened.

Traffic kept moving.
The bridge still “worked.”
Everyone carried on.

The danger wasn’t ignorance. Engineers knew something was wrong.
The danger was mistaking detection for safety.

Seeing the signal did not prevent collapse.
Only how the system responded to that signal ever could have.

That distinction matters more than most people realize — because it applies far beyond bridges.

Right now, many people are doing the geopolitical equivalent of reading sensor data and assuming that awareness itself is protection.

It isn’t.

Awareness changes perception.
It does not change posture.

And when posture doesn’t change — or changes in the wrong sequence — awareness becomes a liability.

The system does not punish people for noticing risk.
It punishes people who respond to variance with badly timed motion.

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